United States Surpasses Its Decade-Long Goal of Producing One Million Additional STEM Graduates
The United States has officially gone beyond its national objective of producing one million more graduates in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics over a ten-year period. This milestone stems from a major initiative set in 2012 by the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) under President Barack Obama. The goal was part of a broader effort to strengthen America’s scientific workforce and maintain the nation’s competitive edge in a rapidly advancing global landscape.
A new analysis led by Haider Ali Bhatti, a National Science Foundation postdoctoral fellow at the University of California, Santa Cruz, examined national higher-education data to see whether the country actually met this ambitious target. According to the study—published in the Journal of Microbiology & Biology Education—the U.S. not only met the target but exceeded it by 16%, showing that STEM-focused educational investments over the past decade have delivered measurable results.
Along with highlighting this progress, the study also raises important warnings about the fragility of the federal data systems used to measure these outcomes. Bhatti points out that maintaining strong national data infrastructure is crucial for tracking how well the country continues to develop its STEM workforce.
Expansion of STEM Degrees Over the Decade
Bhatti’s analysis relied heavily on data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), the country’s primary source for education-related data. Based on this information, the total number of STEM degrees granted in the decade following the 2012 report exceeded the original million-graduate increase by a clear margin.
Not only did the number of degrees rise, but the proportion of STEM degrees compared to all degrees awarded also increased. This is particularly notable because it reversed an earlier decline in STEM’s share of national degrees. The shift indicates a renewed and strengthened interest in STEM pathways among undergraduate students.
This increase did not occur in isolation. Bhatti’s research found that growth in STEM employment also outpaced the projections made in the 2012 report. This suggests a healthy alignment between educational output and workforce demand—a critical factor given the competitive nature of the global STEM ecosystem.
Why the 2012 Report Pushed for More STEM Graduates
Before 2012, the U.S. relied heavily on foreign-born STEM professionals to fill gaps in its workforce. While these individuals remain an essential part of the American STEM community, the PCAST report warned that the nation could no longer rely primarily on international talent to meet growing industry demands. Other countries were rapidly expanding their own STEM education and job opportunities, making it less certain that international graduates would continue to migrate to the U.S. at the same rates.
The report also highlighted how STEM careers offer some of the most promising routes for economic mobility in the U.S. These careers typically come with higher wages, lower unemployment rates, and long-term stability. Training more Americans for such roles was seen as a pathway to reducing income inequality while strengthening the talent pool for industries that rely on technological innovation.
To address these issues, PCAST set specific targets in 2012, including the one-million-graduate goal. Bhatti’s analysis shows that these national concerns were valid and that the country’s response was effective.
Improvements in Retention and Degree Completion
In addition to examining total degree output, Bhatti reviewed national research on student retention in STEM majors. At the time of the 2012 PCAST report, only 40% of students who initially selected a STEM major ended up completing a STEM degree. A decade later, longitudinal data from NCES’s Beginning Postsecondary Students (BPS) study shows the retention rate rising to 52%.
More importantly, STEM retention rates are now equal to or higher than retention rates in non-STEM fields at the bachelor’s degree level. Given the common tendency of undergraduates to change majors as they explore their interests, this reduced attrition in STEM is a positive sign.
These retention improvements help explain the sizeable overall growth in STEM degree attainment. More students are staying in their programs long enough to complete them.
Trends in Demographic Representation
Progress in demographic diversity within STEM fields has been mixed. Bhatti’s study points out notable gains among Hispanic students, whose share of STEM degree recipients rose from 9.5% to 14.7% over the decade. Women also saw improved representation in some degree categories. For example, women’s share of science and engineering degrees at the associate’s level rose from 43% to 49%. At the bachelor’s level, women consistently earned around 50% of these degrees, showing sustained parity.
Overall, from 2012 to 2022, the number of women earning STEM degrees rose from 124,853 to 193,625, reflecting a steady upward trend.
However, the study also highlights persistent underrepresentation among Black students and American Indian/Alaska Native students. Despite national initiatives, the progress for these groups has not kept pace with the gains seen in other demographics.
Addressing Public Criticism of Higher Education
Bhatti frames his findings within the context of growing criticism aimed at U.S. universities. Claims of ideological bias, concerns about the value of higher education, and the reduction of diversity, equity, and inclusion programs have created an environment where institutions are increasingly asked to defend their outcomes.
The growth in STEM degree production and improvement in retention rates provide clear, data-driven evidence that higher education—at least in the STEM domain—is producing meaningful and measurable results. In other words, the data contradicts the idea that universities are failing to support important national workforce goals.
The Danger of Weakening Federal Education Data Systems
While the overall trends are positive, Bhatti warns that these findings would not have been possible without reliable national data. The NCES, a division of the U.S. Department of Education, has faced budget cuts, defunding, and mass layoffs due to federal restructuring. Bhatti emphasizes the danger of weakening or dismantling institutions responsible for collecting high-quality educational data.
Without strong data systems, policymakers, researchers, and educators lose the ability to evaluate progress, identify problems, or plan strategic interventions. In a globally competitive STEM landscape, the absence of such data could hinder long-term national success.
What the Study Does Not Cover
Despite its extensive analysis, the study notes several important limitations:
- National averages can mask regional disparities and differences between institutions.
- Increased degree output does not automatically reflect the quality of graduates’ learning experiences.
- The study does not determine whether STEM degrees align well with current workforce needs.
- It does not track long-term career outcomes, which are crucial for understanding the real impact of STEM education reforms.
Bhatti stresses that simply counting degrees is not enough. Future evaluations must look deeper into whether graduates are thriving in modern STEM careers.
Understanding the Importance of STEM to the U.S. Economy
Beyond the findings of the report, it’s worth understanding why STEM fields are so vital to national growth. STEM industries drive innovation in areas like biotechnology, software development, renewable energy, medical research, aerospace, and manufacturing. These sectors contribute significantly to GDP, national security, and infrastructure.
Countries that fail to develop strong STEM pipelines risk falling behind in technological advancement. The U.S., despite being a scientific leader, faces increasing competition from nations investing heavily in STEM education and research. That’s why monitoring STEM graduate output, retention, and diversity is not just an academic exercise—it’s a matter of national strategy.
Research Paper Link
One Million More: Assessing a Decade of Progress in Undergraduate STEM Education
https://doi.org/10.1128/jmbe.00155-25
