New York’s K–12 Enrollment Is Shrinking While Charter and Homeschooling Are Rapidly Growing

New York State is undergoing a noticeable shift in its K–12 education landscape. While the total number of school-age children continues to decline, alternative education options like charter schools and homeschooling are expanding at a pace that stands out. A new demographic analysis from Cornell University sheds light on how deeply these changes are reshaping schools, districts, and communities across the state.

Over the past decade, New York’s K–12 enrollment has dropped by more than a quarter of a million students. In the 2013–14 school year, the state served roughly 3.1 million students. By 2023–24, that figure had fallen to about 2.8 million. This decline wasn’t isolated to a few areas—it affected nearly 90% of school districts statewide, making it one of the most widespread education trends in recent memory.

Why Fewer Children Are Enrolling in Schools

The primary force behind this decline is New York’s aging population. Families are having fewer children, and they’re doing so later in life. While the state’s overall population has remained relatively flat at around 19.9 million residents, the number of school-age children has steadily decreased. This demographic reality has been building for years, long before the pandemic, though COVID-19 did briefly intensify enrollment losses.

The decline has been gradual rather than sudden, reflecting long-term changes in birth rates and family structures. Researchers emphasize that this is not a short-term fluctuation but part of a broader demographic shift that will likely continue to shape education planning for years to come.

Traditional Public Schools Feel the Biggest Impact

Traditional public schools have absorbed most of the enrollment losses. Nowhere is this more visible than in New York City, the state’s largest school district. Over the decade studied, NYC’s traditional public schools lost approximately 187,000 students, representing a 19.1% decline.

This trend isn’t limited to the city. Suburban, rural, and smaller urban districts across the state have also seen fewer students walking through their doors. As enrollment declines, districts face difficult decisions around staffing, building use, transportation, and funding.

Despite these losses, traditional public schools still dominate the education landscape by sheer numbers. New York has nearly 4,700 traditional public schools, compared with about 1,800 private schools and 370 charter schools.

Charter Schools Are Expanding Their Footprint

While traditional public schools shrink, charter schools are growing fast. Over the past decade, charter school enrollment in New York has more than doubled, now accounting for 6.5% of all K–12 students statewide.

More than three-quarters of these charter schools are located in New York City, where demand for alternatives to traditional public schools remains high. Although charter growth has offset some enrollment losses, it hasn’t come close to compensating for the overall decline in student numbers across the state.

Still, the expansion highlights a clear shift in family preferences, with more parents exploring school choice options that offer different instructional models, governance structures, or academic focuses.

Homeschooling Quietly Doubles

One of the most striking changes is the rise in homeschooling. Over the same ten-year period, the share of students educated at home has doubled, increasing to 1.8% of New York’s K–12 population.

This growth reflects several overlapping factors. The pandemic introduced many families to home-based learning, and some chose to continue even after schools reopened. Others were drawn by flexibility, personalized instruction, or dissatisfaction with traditional schooling environments. While homeschooling still represents a small share of total enrollment, its rapid growth signals a meaningful shift in how education is being delivered.

Private Schools Hold Steady

Unlike charter schools and homeschooling, private school enrollment has only increased slightly, now accounting for 13.6% of students statewide. While private schools remain an important part of New York’s education system, their growth has been modest compared to other alternatives.

Changing Role of Major Urban Districts

The state’s five largest districts—New York City, Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Yonkers, often referred to as the “Big Five”—now serve 37% of all K–12 students, down from 40% in 2013–14.

This decline reflects both population changes and enrollment shifts toward charter schools and homeschooling. Even so, these districts remain central to the state’s education system and continue to educate more than one-third of all students.

Graduation Rates Are Improving

Interestingly, declining enrollment hasn’t translated into weaker outcomes across the board. In fact, New York’s statewide graduation rate improved by more than seven percentage points, reaching 86.3% in the 2023–24 school year.

Girls continue to graduate at higher rates than boys, maintaining a long-standing gender gap. Graduation outcomes also vary significantly by district type. In New York City public schools, the graduation rate stands at 83.3%, while across the other Big Five districts combined, it drops to 74.6%. Charter schools statewide report a graduation rate of 79.6%.

Wealth, Poverty, and Student Outcomes

Economic conditions play a powerful role in shaping educational outcomes. Students in low-need districts, which tend to have higher local wealth and fewer student challenges, perform best. In these districts, 95.7% of students graduate, and 87.9% continue to college or other post-secondary education within 16 months.

In average-need districts, graduation rates remain high, with about nine in ten students earning diplomas, though fewer go on to further education. The picture changes sharply in high-need urban and suburban districts, where graduation rates fall to around 77%, and fewer than six in ten students pursue post-secondary education.

Poverty Levels Vary Widely Across Districts

District-level poverty rates reveal stark contrasts. Syracuse and Rochester have two of the highest poverty rates in the state at 37.9% and 34.4%, respectively, compared with a statewide average of 17.4%.

Other districts with high poverty levels include Kiryas Joel Village in Orange County at 45.2%, Jasper-Troupsberg in Steuben County at 37.1%, and East Ramapo in Rockland County at 34.1%. These conditions directly affect student needs, resources, and outcomes.

Language Diversity in New York Schools

New York’s classrooms are also linguistically diverse. About one in ten public school students speaks a language other than English at home, with Spanish being the most common. This diversity creates both opportunities and challenges for districts as they work to support English language learners.

Why These Trends Matter

The findings highlight that while statewide patterns are clear, every district experiences them differently. Enrollment declines, school choice growth, and outcome gaps don’t unfold evenly across communities. Local leaders are encouraged to examine their own data closely and adjust programs, staffing, and services to meet changing needs.

Understanding these shifts is critical for long-term planning, from school funding formulas to facility usage and curriculum design. As New York’s population continues to age, education systems will need to adapt thoughtfully to remain effective and equitable.

Research Reference:
Cornell Program on Applied Demographics – Topics in Demography (TiDbit) Research Brief
https://pad.human.cornell.edu/research/tidbit.cfm