UN Report Predicts Only a 10% Drop in Global Emissions by 2035—Far from the 60% Needed
The latest United Nations climate report paints a mixed picture of progress in the fight against global warming. For the first time ever, the world is on track for a small decline in greenhouse gas emissions, projected to fall by around 10% by 2035 compared with 1990 levels. That’s a step in the right direction—but still a long way from the 60% cut needed to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C, the key target set by the Paris Agreement.
According to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the new forecast is based on existing and planned climate pledges from countries responsible for roughly 80% of total global emissions. This is the first time the UN has predicted a global decline in emissions, suggesting humanity is finally bending the curve downward. However, UN officials emphasized that the change is happening far too slowly to prevent dangerous climate impacts.
The Numbers Behind the Report
The UNFCCC’s latest NDC Synthesis Report—published in late October 2025—analyzed national climate commitments known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). These documents outline each country’s plan to cut emissions, adapt to climate impacts, and contribute to global climate finance.
Out of nearly 200 countries, only 64 nations had submitted updated NDCs by the September 30 deadline, representing about one-third of total emissions. Based on those submissions, the report estimates a 17% drop in emissions by 2035 compared to 2019 levels. If those plans are fully implemented, global emissions would likely peak before 2030 and then decline more sharply after 2035. Most of these countries aim to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, aligning with long-term global goals.
However, major emitters are still missing from the official record. China, the world’s largest polluter, has announced an intention to cut its net emissions by 7% to 10% over the next decade but has not yet formally submitted this goal to the UN. The European Union is finalizing its collective plan, with a target decision expected in early November 2025—too late for this report but in time for the upcoming COP30 summit in Brazil. India has not yet indicated when it will file its updated plan.
Countries such as Brazil, the United Kingdom, and Norway have made their pledges, while the United States’s commitment—submitted under the Biden administration—remains uncertain under President Donald Trump’s current policies.
Falling Short of the 1.5°C Target
Scientists have repeatedly stated that to stay within the safer limits of the Paris Agreement, the world needs to slash emissions by around 60% by 2035 relative to 2019 levels. The current trajectory—just a 10% reduction—leaves a huge 50% gap between what is happening and what is required.
The consequence of this shortfall is that the world is likely to overshoot the 1.5°C threshold, leading to more severe droughts, floods, storms, and heat waves. These climate events are already killing thousands of people each year and causing billions of dollars in economic losses. The new UN report makes it clear that while the global transition toward cleaner energy is underway, it is happening at a pace closer to a jog than a sprint.
What’s Different in This Year’s Report
This year’s NDC Synthesis Report is notable for several reasons. For one, it’s the first UN climate report projecting an actual decline in emissions. It also notes that most of the new climate plans are more comprehensive and credible than previous ones. They now cover all major economic sectors, not just energy or transport, and they include detailed strategies for adaptation, financial support, technology transfer, and capacity-building.
Unlike past editions, however, the 2025 report does not include a temperature projection for the end of the century. The UN said the current sample of 64 NDCs is too small to make a reliable estimate. A broader update, expected later this year, may include one. For context, last year’s report predicted global temperatures would rise between 2.1°C and 2.8°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, even if current national commitments were met.
The Road to COP30 in Brazil
The findings of this report set the stage for COP30, the next major UN Climate Summit, which will take place on November 6–7, 2025, in Belém, Brazil. The key focus of the meeting will be how to close the gap between current pledges and what’s needed to meet the 1.5°C target.
Expect a tense and politically charged atmosphere. The European Union and other progressive countries are pushing for stronger mitigation commitments, while nations like Saudi Arabia and India are expected to resist more aggressive targets. Over the past week alone, South Africa, Malaysia, and Indonesia submitted their updated NDCs, signaling that more countries could join the list before the summit begins.
The global climate community will be watching closely to see whether the largest emitters use COP30 to ramp up ambition or continue delaying stronger action. The UN has made it clear that “incremental progress” is no longer enough—rapid, systemic change is required.
Why the Numbers Matter
A 10% decline in emissions might sound like progress, but in climate terms, it’s a very small step. To stay within the 1.5°C pathway, global emissions need to fall by about 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035. Every year of delay adds to the risk of exceeding the carbon budget—the total amount of greenhouse gases humanity can still emit before triggering irreversible changes to the climate.
If the current path continues, the planet is expected to warm well beyond 2°C by the end of the century. That might not sound like much, but the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C is massive in terms of human and ecological impact. A 2°C world would see far more heat-related deaths, crop failures, water scarcity, and coastal flooding, especially in developing regions.
The Bigger Picture: What Are NDCs and Why They Matter
Every country that signed the Paris Agreement must submit an NDC—a Nationally Determined Contribution—every five years. Each update is supposed to be more ambitious than the previous one, reflecting improved policies, technology, and economic capacity.
These pledges are central to the Paris framework, but the problem is that they’re voluntary. The UN can measure and report progress but cannot enforce compliance. As a result, many countries announce ambitious targets but fail to implement them domestically.
The UNFCCC report also notes that implementation quality varies widely. Some nations have legally binding climate laws and transparent reporting systems, while others rely on vague strategies with limited accountability. The gap between promises and real-world progress is one of the biggest obstacles to meaningful climate action.
The Outlook Moving Forward
Despite the grim numbers, there are reasons for cautious optimism. The inclusion of finance, adaptation, and technology in newer NDCs shows that countries are finally addressing the broader system changes needed to reach net zero. Many have begun phasing out coal, investing in renewable energy, and expanding carbon markets.
However, experts stress that these changes must happen much faster. Every year of delay locks in more fossil fuel infrastructure and makes it harder to meet future goals. A full transformation—covering energy, agriculture, transport, and industry—is essential if we want to meet the Paris Agreement targets and avoid catastrophic warming.
In the coming months, all eyes will be on COP30. It’s a critical moment for governments to either accelerate their transition toward a low-carbon economy or risk pushing the planet beyond the point of manageable climate change.
