Study Highlights Strong Link Between Eviction Rates and Gun Violence in Chicago
Violent crime in Chicago has fallen to some of its lowest levels in decades, a trend that often makes headlines and fuels optimism about public safety. But beneath that encouraging surface, gun violence continues to disproportionately affect specific neighborhoods, especially those facing concentrated poverty and housing instability. A new study from the University of Chicago takes a closer look at why this pattern persists and points to a factor that often gets less attention in discussions about violence: evictions.
The research, published in JAMA Network Open, explores how eviction rates at the neighborhood level are linked to firearm violence across Chicago. The findings are striking. According to the study, every 1% increase in eviction rates within a census tract is associated with an average of 2.66 additional shootings. That connection remains even after accounting for poverty, unemployment, and other well-known risk factors.
Gun Violence Is Highly Concentrated, Even as Crime Falls Overall
One of the key takeaways from recent crime data is that gun violence is not evenly distributed. A 2023 analysis of five major U.S. cities found that more than 55% of shootings occurred in just 9% of census tracts. Chicago fits this pattern closely.
Even though citywide violent crime rates have declined, neighborhoods struggling with deep poverty, unemployment, limited access to health care, and housing insecurity continue to experience persistent gun violence. However, the study emphasizes something important: not every disadvantaged neighborhood experiences high levels of gun violence. This raises a critical question—what separates communities that remain relatively safe from those that don’t?
Evictions as a Missing Piece of the Puzzle
The University of Chicago study suggests that eviction rates may be one of the missing links. Researchers analyzed eviction data alongside shooting incidents and survey responses from residents across Chicago. Their conclusion was clear: neighborhoods with higher eviction rates experience significantly more firearm violence.
Evictions don’t just force individuals and families out of their homes. They reshape entire neighborhoods, disrupting social networks, breaking long-standing relationships between neighbors, and creating instability that extends well beyond the household being evicted.
The study found that people who personally experienced eviction were also more likely to live near shootings, reinforcing the idea that eviction is not only a housing issue but a community-level risk factor for violence.
Understanding Collective Efficacy and Why It Matters
A major concept explored in the study is collective efficacy, a term used to describe a neighborhood’s shared sense of trust, cohesion, and belief in its ability to work together for the common good. This includes things like neighbors knowing each other, being willing to step in during conflicts, and feeling empowered to improve local conditions.
Data for this part of the research came from the Healthy Chicago Survey, an annual survey conducted by the Chicago Department of Public Health. In recent years, the survey has included questions designed to measure collective efficacy, such as how many neighbors residents know well enough to ask for help and whether they believe people in their area can make positive changes together.
The study found that evictions significantly weaken collective efficacy. When people are forced to move, social ties are broken. Neighbors lose familiar faces, trust erodes, and informal systems of accountability disappear. This erosion of social cohesion helps explain why eviction-heavy neighborhoods are more vulnerable to gun violence.
Challenging Conventional Wisdom About Violence
Traditionally, low collective efficacy has been seen as a defining feature of neighborhoods with high gun violence. But the researchers found something more nuanced. In neighborhoods that scored low on collective efficacy but did not face the same level of poverty and structural disadvantage, gun violence was not nearly as severe.
This suggests that disadvantage alone does not automatically lead to violence. Some communities manage to build strong, resilient social bonds despite economic hardship. The problem arises when those bonds are repeatedly disrupted by forces like eviction.
The study highlights that resilience exists even in deeply disadvantaged neighborhoods, but that resilience can be undermined by policies and systems that increase housing instability.
Eviction Is a Policy Choice, Not an Inevitable Outcome
One of the most important aspects of this research is its focus on policy implications. Unlike some structural problems, eviction rates are heavily influenced by decisions made at the city and state level.
Between 2007 and 2016, an average of 7.6 million people per year faced eviction filings in the United States, and more than 3.6 million were forcibly removed from their homes annually. The burden of eviction is not evenly shared. Black women are disproportionately affected, reflecting broader inequalities in housing, income, and legal protection.
Evictions are associated with a wide range of negative outcomes beyond violence, including financial hardship, chronic stress, depression, lower voter turnout, fewer calls for city services, and even higher maternal mortality rates. When eviction becomes common in a neighborhood, it signals deeper systemic problems that ripple outward.
Why Reducing Evictions Could Help Reduce Gun Violence
The researchers argue that while eliminating poverty entirely may seem overwhelming, reducing evictions is a realistic and actionable goal. Cities have tools at their disposal, such as:
- Capping excessive rent increases
- Expanding access to public and affordable housing
- Providing legal assistance to tenants facing eviction
- Strengthening tenant protections and mediation programs
By keeping people housed, these policies can help preserve neighborhood stability, maintain social ties, and support collective efficacy—all of which appear to play a role in reducing gun violence.
Eviction is especially harmful for children, disrupting education, emotional development, and long-term economic prospects. Addressing eviction, therefore, has the potential to produce benefits that extend far beyond crime reduction.
The Bigger Picture: Housing as Public Safety
This study adds to a growing body of evidence suggesting that housing policy is public safety policy. Gun violence is often discussed in terms of policing, criminal justice, or individual behavior. While those factors matter, this research shows that structural conditions like housing stability deserve equal attention.
Neighborhoods are not just collections of buildings; they are networks of relationships. When those networks are repeatedly broken, the consequences can be deadly. Conversely, when communities are allowed to remain stable and connected, they can better withstand economic hardship and social stress.
Why This Research Matters Now
As cities across the U.S. debate how to respond to violence, affordability crises, and widening inequality, this study provides clear evidence that eviction prevention should be part of the conversation. It challenges simplistic explanations for gun violence and offers a more comprehensive view that links housing, health, and safety.
By focusing on eviction rates, the research highlights a specific, measurable, and policy-responsive factor that can make neighborhoods safer. That makes it not just an academic finding, but a potential roadmap for real-world change.
Research Paper:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2843144
