Only Three Years Left to Avoid Passing 1.5°C Warming, Scientists Warn
Imagine a clock ticking down with just three years left. That’s essentially where we are with global warming, according to more than 60 of the world’s leading climate scientists. Their latest assessment says Earth could blow past its carbon budget for 1.5°C of warming far sooner than most of us would like to believe.
Back in 2015, nearly 200 countries promised under the Paris Agreement to try to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. That number wasn’t chosen randomly—it’s a threshold that scientists believe helps us avoid the very worst effects of climate change.
But a decade later, we’re still burning through record amounts of coal, oil, and gas, while chopping down carbon-rich forests. The result? The world is rapidly closing in on that critical line.
How Close Are We?
The researchers estimate that at the start of 2025, we had just 130 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide left to emit for a 50-50 shot at keeping warming below 1.5°C. Sounds like a lot?
Not when you realize we currently pump out about 40 billion tonnes a year. Do the math, and that gives us only about three years before we’ve used up the budget.
That doesn’t mean we’ll immediately leap over 1.5°C in 2028. Climate systems lag a bit. But once the budget’s gone, the odds of staying under that line shrink dramatically. The scientists warn that unless emissions drop rapidly, we’re on course to hit 1.5°C of warming by around 2030.
What Does That Mean for Us?
If this all feels a little abstract, think back to the UK’s record-breaking 40°C heatwave in July 2022 or the record global temperatures of 2024. These are the kinds of extremes that become more frequent as the planet heats up. Rising seas, hotter oceans, stronger storms—these aren’t future problems, they’re happening now.
One striking fact from the report: about 90% of the excess heat from greenhouse gases is absorbed by the oceans. That warms the water, disrupts marine life, and expands the sea—literally making it rise.
Add in melting glaciers, and coastal flooding risks have doubled since the 1990s. Millions of people living in coastal areas are directly in the path of this change.
The Science Behind the Worry
Scientists track something called Earth’s energy imbalance—basically how much extra heat is being trapped.
Over the past decade, it’s been more than double the rate seen in the 1970s and 1980s. Dr. Matthew Palmer from the UK Met Office described this as “a really large number, a very worrying number.”
What’s driving it? Unsurprisingly, greenhouse gases. But another factor is the decline in small particles called aerosols.
They used to provide a slight cooling effect by reflecting sunlight, but with cleaner air (a good thing for health), that cooling effect has dropped—leaving more heat in the system.
Is There Any Hope?
The bleak news comes with a small silver lining: emissions growth is starting to slow down thanks to cleaner technologies, from renewable energy to electric vehicles.
But “slowing down” isn’t enough. As the scientists put it, we need “rapid and stringent” cuts if we want any chance of bending the curve.
Importantly, the 1.5°C target isn’t a simple safe/dangerous switch. It’s more like a spectrum: every fraction of a degree matters. As Prof. Joeri Rogelj from Imperial College London explained, “Every fraction of warming that we can avoid will result in less harm and less suffering.”
That means less heat stress on vulnerable populations, fewer devastating floods, and more stable conditions for all of us.
The Bottom Line
Three years might sound impossibly short, but this isn’t about despair—it’s about urgency. The window hasn’t slammed shut yet. The sooner we cut emissions, the better chance we have of keeping global warming in check.
The science is clear: the next decade is critical.
And while big policy shifts are vital, everyday choices—from the energy we use to the food we eat—add up too. The 1.5°C target is still just within reach, but only if we act like time really is running out—because it is.