Large Numbers of Childfree Young Adults Are Emerging in Developing Countries, Surprising Researchers

A new study has uncovered something researchers didn’t expect to find: a significant number of young adults in developing countries who have no children and do not want any in the future. This challenges the long-standing assumption that choosing to be childfree is mostly a trend found in wealthier, highly developed nations. The study, conducted by Zachary P. Neal and Jennifer Watling Neal from Michigan State University, analyzed data from 51 developing countries and revealed patterns that reshape how we understand global fertility preferences.

The Core of the Study: What the Researchers Examined

The research was published in 2025 in the open-access journal PLOS One. To understand childfree prevalence in developing nations, the authors used Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), a major international source of fertility and family-planning data. These surveys span multiple continents and include millions of respondents.

To properly analyze the data, the team developed new software designed specifically for DHS datasets. This software makes it possible to categorize people according to the ABC framework, which distinguishes people based on their family statuses:

Parents
Not-yet parents (plan to have children later)
Childless (want children but do not have them yet or cannot have them)
Childfree (have no children and do not want them in the future)

Using this framework, they identified 37,366 childfree individuals from more than 2,000,000 surveyed people across the 51 countries, using DHS data collected between 2014 and 2023.

The focus of the prevalence estimates was specifically on single women aged 15–29, because this demographic had the most consistent data across countries.

Country-Level Variation: Some Nations Show Surprisingly High Rates

One of the most striking findings is how much childfree prevalence varies from one country to another—even within the same region.

Here are some of the key numbers:

In Papua New Guinea, an estimated 15.6% of single women aged 15–29 were childfree—the highest rate of any country examined.
In Liberia, the childfree rate was just 0.3%, the lowest in the dataset.
In Southeast Asia, the Philippines had an estimated 7.3% childfree prevalence, compared to only 0.4% in Indonesia.
When averaged across all 51 countries, prevalence for this age group came to around 3.28%.

This wide range suggests that cultural, political, and socioeconomic conditions strongly influence whether young people choose to remain childfree.

What “Childfree” Means in the Context of This Study

The definition used here is specific and important. A person is considered childfree if:

They have no children, and
They state that they do not want children in the future.

This is not the same as:

People delaying parenthood
People unable to have children
People uncertain about having kids

The study is clear that the “childfree” designation captures a current preference, not a permanent identity. Someone who is childfree at 19 or 23 may change their mind later in life. The DHS data is cross-sectional, meaning it captures a person’s desires at the moment they were surveyed.

Factors Linked to Higher Childfree Rates

The study also examined what might explain why some countries have more childfree people than others. While many individual and societal factors could play a role, the researchers found three strong associations:

1. Human Development Levels

This was the most important predictor. Countries that scored higher on human development indicators—such as health, education, and living standards—tended to have higher childfree prevalence.

For example:

Countries with lower development (like Chad) had childfree rates around 1%.
Countries with higher development (like Turkey) had rates around 6%.

2. Gender Equality

Societies with greater gender equality—where women have more control over careers, relationships, and fertility decisions—saw somewhat higher levels of childfree preference.

3. Political Freedom

Political and social freedom, which often correlates with higher individual autonomy, showed a modest relationship with childfree prevalence.

Individual Factors

At the personal level, marital status mattered.
Never-married young adults were substantially more likely to identify as childfree than those married, divorced, or widowed.

Why These Findings Are Important

For years, childfree discussions and research were centered mostly on North America, Europe, and other high-income regions. Because of this, many people assumed that choosing not to have children was primarily a Western or wealthy-nation phenomenon.

This study shows that:

Childfree individuals exist across a wide spectrum of developing societies.
The decision to not have children is emerging even in places with strong cultural pressure toward parenthood.
Fertility preferences are more complex and globally varied than stereotypes suggest.

This matters for several reasons:

1. Changing Global Population Trends

As global fertility rates decline, understanding the motivations behind childfree choices becomes important for predicting demographic shifts.

2. Public Health and Policy Implications

Family-planning programs in developing countries often assume that everyone eventually wants children. This study suggests that these programs must adapt to include:

People who want children
People who do not want children
People who are undecided

Recognizing childfree individuals helps health systems provide better services and more respectful care.

3. Cultural and Social Change

In many societies, parenthood is considered a major life milestone. A growing number of people opting out challenges long-standing norms about adulthood, identity, and gender roles.

Additional Background: Global Fertility Decline and Shifting Attitudes

The study fits into a broader global trend: fertility rates are dropping nearly everywhere, and not just because of economic hardship or lack of opportunities.

Here are a few global factors influencing decisions to have fewer—or no—children:

Education Expansion

Higher education—especially for women—is consistently linked with:

Delayed childbearing
Greater career focus
Different life priorities

Urbanization

Urban living often increases the cost of raising children and exposes people to more diverse lifestyles, making childfree choices more visible and accepted.

Economic Uncertainty

Even in high-fertility regions, many young adults cite economic instability, unemployment, and rising costs as reasons for not wanting children.

Changing Social Norms

Access to information through the internet and social media makes alternative lifestyles more accessible. Childfree influencers and communities are now global.

Access to Contraception

Where contraception becomes more widely available, young people have more control over whether—and when—they want children.

These broader factors help explain why the childfree trend is not confined to highly developed countries.

Why the Findings Challenge Old Assumptions

For a long time, demographers assumed that developing countries naturally favored higher fertility because of social expectations, family structures, and cultural norms. But this study suggests:

Desire for children is not universal.
Young people in developing nations may weigh parenthood decisions differently than previous generations.
Modernization, education, and personal autonomy are influencing preferences everywhere, not just in affluent countries.

What the Researchers Suggest for the Future

The authors argue that more research is needed to:

Understand why people choose to be childfree in different cultural settings
Explore how childfree individuals are treated socially in developing countries
Adapt health systems to support people with diverse reproductive goals
Track how childfree preferences change over time as development progresses

The study is a first step in mapping out what may become a significant global trend over the next few decades.