New Research Shows How Cartel Violence Makes Migration at the U.S.–Mexico Border Far More Dangerous

As debates over border security and organized crime continue to dominate political conversations in the United States and Mexico, a new academic study offers a detailed and unsettling look at what migrants actually face on the ground. Research from the University of California, Davis reveals that violent competition between drug cartels significantly increases the risks migrants face as they attempt to cross the U.S.–Mexico border. While migration has always carried dangers, the study shows that these dangers escalate sharply when criminal organizations fight for territorial control.

At the heart of the research is a simple but powerful idea: migrants are not just affected by border enforcement or geography, but by the internal power struggles of criminal groups that operate along key migration corridors. When cartels clash, migrants often become collateral damage.

How the Study Was Conducted

The research was led by sociologist Oscar Contreras-Velasco from UC Davis’s College of Letters and Science and published in the peer-reviewed journal Social Forces. The study draws on a large and diverse set of data sources, making it one of the most comprehensive analyses of its kind.

Contreras-Velasco examined conditions near 23 Mexican border cities between 2015 and 2019, focusing on regions known to be important corridors for both drug trafficking and human smuggling. The data used in the study included:

Mexican government statistics on gun violence
U.S. government data on border enforcement and migrant encounters
News reports documenting cartel activity
Survey responses from 4,945 migrants detailing their journeys, experiences, and dangers faced

To measure cartel violence, the study used male homicide rates as a proxy. This approach is widely used in organized crime research because men are disproportionately the victims of cartel turf wars, making spikes in male homicides a strong indicator of violent competition between criminal groups.

Where the Risks Are Highest

One of the most striking findings from the study is that not all border regions pose equal danger. Using a machine-learning-based risk index, the research found that cities along the Texas portion of the U.S.–Mexico border consistently scored higher for migrant risk than cities along the western border near New Mexico, Arizona, and California.

This does not mean western routes are safe. Instead, it highlights how fragmented criminal control in certain eastern corridors creates more unpredictable and violent conditions. Where rival groups compete for dominance, migrants face greater threats of extortion, assault, abandonment, and exposure to deadly environments.

How Cartel Violence Shapes Migration Routes

The study also sheds light on how cartel violence indirectly reshapes migration itself. When criminal groups clash, migrants are often forced away from established routes and pushed into more remote and hazardous terrain. These detours can mean deserts with extreme temperatures, rivers with strong currents, or mountainous areas where falls are common.

At the same time, intensified U.S. border enforcement plays a key role. As enforcement increases, independent border crossings become nearly impossible. Migrants are then compelled to rely on professional smugglers, many of whom operate under the control or taxation of cartels. This transforms migration into a lucrative business, fueling further competition and violence among criminal organizations.

In other words, stricter enforcement can unintentionally strengthen the very networks that make migration more dangerous.

What Migrants Actually Face on the Journey

Because the study is based on nearly 5,000 migrant surveys, it provides rare quantitative insight into the specific dangers migrants encounter. The findings are sobering:

1,449 migrants were exposed to extreme heat or cold
887 lacked access to food or water
676 were abandoned by smugglers
419 got lost during their journey
358 risked falling from cliffs or hills
238 faced the risk of drowning
188 were attacked by animals
155 were physically assaulted

These figures make clear that migrant risk is not theoretical. It is measurable, widespread, and often life-threatening. The dangers intensify dramatically in regions where cartel control breaks down and violence surges.

Cartels as a Predatory Quasi-State

A major theme of the research is the idea that cartels increasingly function as a predatory quasi-state. In areas where government authority is weak or overwhelmed, criminal organizations step in to control territory, regulate movement, and collect payments from those passing through.

While this might resemble governance on the surface, it is enforced through coercion, threats, and violence rather than law or public accountability. Migrants entering these zones are subject to arbitrary rules, extortion fees, and brutal punishment if they fail to comply.

The study describes this phenomenon as a fragmentation of sovereignty, where the state no longer has exclusive control over borderlands. Instead, power is divided among criminal groups whose primary goal is profit, not safety or stability.

Why Border Crackdowns Can Backfire

An important takeaway from the research is that aggressive border enforcement or attempts to disrupt criminal networks can produce unintended consequences. When enforcement pressures increase without addressing deeper structural issues, cartels adapt by tightening their grip on smuggling routes and extracting more value from migrants.

This dynamic helps explain why migration risks remain high even as enforcement budgets grow. Without strong local governance and coordinated binational efforts, criminal organizations are able to fill the gaps left by the state.

Additional Context on Organized Crime and Migration

The findings align with broader research showing that organized crime thrives in zones of weak governance, especially along major transit routes. Similar patterns have been observed in other parts of the world, where smugglers and criminal groups exploit vulnerable populations fleeing violence, poverty, or instability.

Migration through cartel-controlled areas is not just about crossing a border. It involves navigating a complex landscape shaped by violence, economics, and power struggles that migrants have little ability to influence.

Why This Research Matters

This study adds critical nuance to public discussions about migration. It shows that migrant safety is not solely determined by individual choices or border walls, but by larger systems of organized crime and state failure. Understanding these dynamics is essential for policymakers, researchers, and the public alike.

By quantifying risks and linking them directly to cartel competition, the research provides a clearer picture of why certain border regions are more deadly than others—and why simple enforcement solutions often fall short.

Research Paper Reference

Oscar Contreras-Velasco, When elephants fight, it’s the grass that suffers: organized crime violence and risks for migrants at the U.S.–Mexico border, Social Forces (2025).
https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/soaf202